Approval Prospects for Solana ETFs Tied to US Presidential Dynamics
Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, recently discussed the prospects of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on social media platform X. According to Balchunas, the chances of a Solana spot ETF gaining approval in the next 12 months are closely intertwined with the possibility of a change in the U.S. presidency. He remarked that "it's safe to say the chances of both are higher today than they were yesterday."
The anticipation surrounding the potential approval of a Solana spot ETF has intensified significantly following the SEC's recent approval of spot Ether ETFs. Moreover, Vaneck's submission for a Solana spot ETF has sparked further discussions and speculation in the investment community. Balchunas emphasized that Bloomberg has not yet provided precise odds on this matter, underscoring that it remains early to make such assessments.
Balchunas' reference to today's higher chances compared to yesterday could be attributed to recent developments in U.S. politics, particularly discussions arising after the presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden. Following the debate, concerns have emerged within the Democratic Party about Biden's potential to run for another term, potentially opening the door to alternative candidates. In parallel, prediction markets have observed an uptick in the odds of Biden stepping back from the presidential race.
Meanwhile, Trump has positioned himself as the "crypto president," pledging to reverse Biden's anti-crypto policies, safeguard Bitcoin, and oppose the introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). His stance has garnered support from notable figures in the cryptocurrency community, such as Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, and Kraken founder Jesse Powell, who have contributed to Trump's campaign.
In response to Vaneck's filing for a Solana ETF, Balchunas noted initial skepticism stemming from the absence of a Solana futures market. However, he suggested that a change in the presidency could reshape this landscape. Under new leadership, including the potential appointment of a pro-crypto SEC commissioner like Hester Peirce, the likelihood of approval for a Solana spot ETF could significantly improve.
Balchunas mused, "The knee-jerk reaction might be dismissive due to the lack of Solana futures, but if there's a change in POTUS, I think anything is possible. Imagine Hester Peirce, or someone akin to her, leading the SEC."
What are your thoughts on the potential approval of Solana spot ETFs and its connection to U.S. political shifts? Share your opinions in the comments below.