Bitcoin’s four-year cycle could potentially be disrupted by the influx of Wall Street, as trillions of dollars are set to enter the market following a game-changing executive order that solidifies crypto's mainstream dominance.
Full mainstream integration of crypto may break Bitcoin's established four-year cycle, with trillions of dollars awaiting entry.
On January 28, Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, published an analysis exploring the potential impact of President Donald Trump's recent executive order on Bitcoin's well-established four-year cycle.
"Last week, President Trump issued an executive order that was so overwhelmingly positive for the industry that it got me thinking," he wrote. "The executive order deemed it a 'national priority' to foster the growth of the digital asset ecosystem in the United States. It paved the way for a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and even considered establishing a 'national crypto stockpile.' Coupled with the pro-crypto actions taken by the SEC, it created a pathway for major Wall Street banks and investors to enter the market aggressively," detailed the Bitwise CIO.
While Bitcoin ETFs have already attracted significant investments, Hougan suggested that this executive action could further boost adoption. He pointed out that ETFs have attracted new investors, driving the current cycle. Emphasizing the fact that ETFs have drawn in hundreds of billions from new investors and propelled the current cycle, he emphasized:
But with the full integration of crypto envisaged by Trump's executive order...I am convinced that trillions will flow in.
The Bitwise executive analyzed Bitcoin's historical behavior, referring to its recurring four-year pattern. "Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle, with three major upward years followed by a pullback," he stated. He explained that the current cycle emerged due to widespread deleveraging caused by major collapses in 2022, including FTX, Three Arrows Capital, Genesis, Blockfi, and Celsius. "At Bitwise, we refer to this cycle as the 'Mainstream Cycle,' and we believe its defining feature is the entry of mainstream investors into the crypto market," he explained.
With Bitcoin already surpassing $100,000, he predicted further gains. "If we were to follow the classic four-year cycle, 2025 would be a great year for crypto. And I believe it will be...We predict that Bitcoin's price will double this year and exceed $200,000," he asserted.
His outlook was cautiously optimistic, as he acknowledged the possibility of market corrections. "I believe we have not completely overcome the four-year cycle. As the bull market progresses, leverage will increase, excesses will appear, and bad actors will emerge," he noted. However, he believes that any downturn will be shorter and less severe than in previous cycles, stating:
I believe any pullback will be shorter and less severe than in the past.
The confidence in Bitcoin's trajectory is strengthened by institutional investments and clearer regulations. "For now, it's full steam ahead. The crypto train is leaving the station," he concluded.
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