Bitcoin could reach $200,000 next year, driven by institutional adoption and major market events, according to a new report. Analysts expect Wall Street to surpass Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, as the largest
BTC
holder. “By the end of 2024, we expect Wall Street to replace Satoshi as the top Bitcoin wallet,” they noted.
Bitcoin Set to Reach $200,000 in 2025, Says Bernstein Analysts
Bitcoin’s price is projected to soar to an unprecedented $200,000 by 2025, according to a new report from global investment research and asset management firm Bernstein. The forecast, fueled by growing institutional adoption of cryptocurrency, suggests the digital asset will experience a substantial increase in value over the next year.
Signaling a shift in bitcoin’s market momentum, Bernstein’s analysts stated in the report: “We are on the verge of a new cycle.” A key factor in this anticipated growth is institutional involvement, particularly the launch of U.S.-regulated bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). “Ten global asset managers now hold $60 billion of bitcoin through regulated ETFs, up from $12 billion in September 2022,” the firm noted, adding:
By 2024 end, we expect Wall Street to replace Satoshi as a top bitcoin wallet. This new institutional era, in our view, could push bitcoin to a high of $200,000 by 2025 end.
The crypto industry remains bullish on
BTC
. So far, the cryptocurrency has gained nearly 60% in value this year. According to Bernstein, macroeconomic factors such as the U.S. election, China’s $284 billion economic stimulus, and potential interest rate cuts have encouraged investors to back bitcoin’s rally.
Bernstein highlighted, “The launch of U.S.-regulated ETFs was a ‘watershed moment,’” as it helped boost bitcoin’s value to $73,700 earlier this year. The report noted that bitcoin ETFs, managed by firms like Blackrock, have attracted significant inflows since their inception. Bernstein predicts that by the end of 2025, total assets under management by bitcoin ETF issuers will reach $190 billion, representing about 7% of all bitcoin in circulation.
In addition to institutional adoption, timing plays a crucial role in the forecast. The analysts identified the halving event as another major driver of bitcoin’s price surge. This event, which halves miners’ rewards, has historically led to price increases. “A halving is typically followed by a year of ‘irrational market exuberance’ before the market cools in year three,” the report stated. Previous halving events have resulted in price peaks in the second year after the event, making 2025 the expected year for a new all-time high.
Bernstein’s bullish $200,000 prediction is grounded in bitcoin’s marginal cost of production, defined as the expense incurred by the least efficient miner. The report explained, “In 2017, bitcoin’s price reached five times its marginal cost. In 2021, it was 2.3 times the marginal cost at the start of the cycle.” For the upcoming cycle, Bernstein expects bitcoin’s price to be about 1.5 times today’s marginal cost.