In the past hour, bitcoin has been fluctuating between $95,850 and $96,240, with a market cap of $1.90 trillion. Daily trading activity reached $48 billion, and the price range for the day was $95,676 to $100,097, indicating that the market is uncertain and ambitious.
On a one-hour chart, bitcoin is currently in a compressed range, recovering from a brief drop to $95,662. There is a support zone forming between $95,500 and $96,000 per BTC, attracting bargain hunters. However, there are obstacles at $98,000 and $100,185 that are hindering upward movement. The activity around $96,000 suggests a possible accumulation, but the direction is still uncertain. Breaking through $98,000 could lead to a surge towards six figures, while falling below $95,500 may result in a retreat to $92,000.
Zooming out to a four-hour chart, bitcoin's medium-term decline is reinforced as it stays near $96,000, previously rejected at $98,500. It is struggling to surpass the pivotal $99,500 level, which is crucial for bullish aspirations. If bearish forces intensify, there is a recent low point at $91,530 that could be a target. Trading patterns indicate a potential capital flight, with liquidations causing sudden downturns. Breaking above $98,500 is key for optimism, while dropping below $95,000 could lead to further decline towards $92,000.
Looking at the daily chart, bitcoin has retreated from its peak of $109,356 and is facing resistance between $100,000 and $102,000. A strong support level exists at $89,164, which has been tested before. Increased liquidation activity signals a persistent bearish sentiment, unless buyers can regain momentum to reclaim $100,000. The market is at a critical juncture, with future sessions determining whether there will be a revival or retreat.
Various oscillators provide different perspectives. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 42 and the Stochastic is at 32, indicating equilibrium. On the other hand, the commodity channel index (CCI) at -127 leans towards bearishness. The average directional index (ADX) of 24 confirms the ambiguity of the trend. However, caution is advised as the momentum indicator at -7,557 and MACD at -802 reflect seller dominance, while the awesome oscillator's -2,229 reading dampens hopes for sustained rallies without a change in sentiment.
Moving averages reflect a bearish sentiment. Short-term exponential and simple averages (10- to 50-period) between $98,453 and $101,288 indicate negativity. Longer-term averages offer some solace, with the 100-period EMA and SMA at $93,227 and $95,267 respectively, and the 200-period pair at $83,766 and $78,803 serving as distant support levels. Traders are considering two scenarios: a breakout above the 50-period averages to revive optimism, or a drop below the 100-period lines, leading to a deeper decline.
Bull Verdict:
Bitcoin is currently in a short to mid-term downtrend, but key support levels at $95,500 and $96,000 are holding, with longer-term moving averages providing additional strength. If there is a breakout above $98,500, followed by a reclaim of $100,000, momentum could shift in favor of buyers, potentially targeting $102,000 and beyond. With increased volume, bitcoin may see renewed bullish sentiment and a reversal of recent declines.
Bear Verdict:
Despite temporary support near $96,000, bitcoin remains in a broader downtrend, with strong resistance at $98,500 and $100,000 limiting upward potential. Oscillators and moving averages indicate continued selling pressure, and failing to hold above $95,500 could trigger a further decline towards $92,000 and possibly $89,164. Without a surge in buying volume, bitcoin is at risk of further downside in the short to mid-term.