Bitcoin’s 34% Post-Halving Gain Fuels Speculation of a Broken, Weaker, or Late Cycle
Bitcoin’s price held steady above $87,000 on Thursday, fueling a spirited debate among analysts about the fate of its once-reliable four-year cycle. Traditionally associated with dramatic post-halving rallies, this cycle now faces scrutiny as evolving market sophistication, regulatory developments, and broader economic currents challenge its predictability.
Bitcoin’s 34% Post-Halving Gain Fuels Speculation of a Broken, Weaker, or Late Cycle
As of 4 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, March 27, 2025, bitcoin (BTC) traded at $87,027, a far cry from its lifetime high of $109,356 reached on Jan. 20, 2025—the day President Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th U.S. President. The digital asset’s volatility since then has reignited a fierce debate: Is bitcoin’s storied four-year cycle, once driven by halving-induced supply shocks, losing its predictive power?
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle revolves around halving events, programmed to occur every 210,000 blocks (roughly four years), which slash the reward for mining new blocks by 50%. These events reduce the rate of new bitcoin supply, historically triggering price surges as demand outpaces dwindling issuance. Past cycles saw meteoric gains: After the 2012 halving, bitcoin soared from $12 to $1,000 in a year; post-2016, it leapt from $650 to nearly $20,000; and following the 2020 halving, it rocketed from $8,000 to $69,000.
However, the April 2024 halving—which cut block rewards to 3.125 BTC—has delivered a muted 33.85% price increase from $65,012 to $87,027 per coin by March 27, 2025, paling against prior triple- or quadruple-digit gains.
Factors Challenging the Cycle
Multiple forces are cited for this underperformance. First, the January 2024 approval of bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) catalyzed a pre-halving rally, with prices peaking near $74,000 in March 2024. Analysts argue this pulled forward demand that might otherwise have followed the halving.
Second, bitcoin’s market maturity has diluted the halving’s impact. “Halvings no longer have the fundamental effect they did in 2016,” said Jasper De Maere of Outlier Ventures, noting institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors now dominate. Third, bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. economic health—such as the 2024 Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) contraction—has overshadowed supply dynamics.
Bitcoin’s quarterly returns since 2013.
Finally, President Trump’s March 2025 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) announcement, lacking concrete buying plans, disappointed investors, contributing to a further price drop from January’s peak. Comparative data reinforces the cycle’s anomaly. One year post-halving, bitcoin’s gains have dwindled from 8,233% (2012), 285% (2016), and 525% (2020) to just 33.85% so far in 2024–2025.
Even more telling: After briefly touching $109,356 in January 2025, bitcoin shed value amid policy uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds specifically associated with Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, bitcoin’s 2024–2025 performance so far marks its weakest post-halving return to date, with August 2024 dubbed the worst post-halving month.
The Bull vs. Bear Divide
Proponents of the cycle’s endurance point to historical patterns. Some note that peaks typically occur 12–18 months post-halving, suggesting a late-2025 surge. Some analysts project a $125,000 peak in 2025 followed by a correction to $50,000 in 2026, aligning with past cycles. Others have highlighted “exponential gains” midway through the current cycle, reminiscent of prior halving phases.
Fundstrat co-founder and managing partner Tom Lee still believes BTC will be 2025’s best-performing asset, even outpacing gold’s massive rise this year. Conversely, skeptics cite risks of macroeconomic stagnation, and extremely bearish forecasts warn of a plunge below $20,000 if demand falters.
The debate reflects bitcoin’s maturation from a niche asset to a macro-economic player. While the modest gain defies historical norms, many believers caution against dismissing cyclicality entirely, noting bitcoin’s post-2024 halving rise—albeit modest—still followed an upward trajectory. Meanwhile, Trump’s policy moves and ETF inflows signal deepening institutionalization, potentially reshaping price drivers. Whether its cycle is extinct or merely evolving remains the trillion-dollar question.