Over the last eleven years, starting from 2013, Bitcoin has generally shown positive performance during July, with five of those months recording gains of over 16%. However, this year presents a different scenario as July seems to be heading towards a negative trend. Looking at historical data for August and September, there is a pattern of lackluster returns that might persist until October, a month renowned for its significant historical gains.
The Past as a Poetic Reflections
Traditionally, July has been a fruitful month for Bitcoin, with statistics from coinglass.com indicating positive returns 63.64% of the time. This means that in seven out of the last eleven years, July has been a profitable period for BTC. Noteworthy increases were observed in 2013 and 2015, with gains of 9.6% and 8.2% respectively. Subsequently, the following five Julys witnessed even more robust gains, culminating in a peak of 24.03% in 2020.
Monthly returns of Bitcoin (BTC) since 2013, as per coinglass.com data on July 7, 2024.
Presently, Bitcoin is facing a 7.77% decline this July with three weeks still remaining. Looking ahead, historical trends suggest a somewhat different outlook. August has seen gains only 36.36% of the time over the past eleven years. Despite this statistic, the head of Standard Chartered’s forex and digital assets research team is forecasting a new all-time high for BTC in August.
In retrospect, September's performance appears even less promising, with gains recorded only 27.27% of the time in the last eleven years. Conversely, October has proven to be a robust month for Bitcoin historically, showing positive returns 81.82% of the time. This year, October is precursor to the 2024 U.S. election, cited as a potential catalyst for BTC prices by Standard Chartered analysts.
While history seldom repeats itself verbatim, it often reverberates familiar rhythms. Future occurrences may mirror analogous themes or trends, although not always. The current downtrend in July, combined with historically lackluster performances in August and September, advises caution, yet outcomes may deviate from expectations. Despite the historical strength of October and the approaching U.S. election, potential opportunities might unfold differently than foreseen.
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin's historical performances in specific months? Do you believe these trends are likely to persist in the future? Feel free to share your opinions and insights on this matter in the comments section below.